1. China’s First Move: "Ignore the Noise, Work on Weaknesses"
🔹 US Reaction:
"We’ve imposed 300% tariffs on their goods! They didn’t even squeak! We’ve broken them!"
🔹 Reality:
China saw this coming and has already:
Diversified exports (Africa, Middle East, Southeast Asia).
Rerouted goods through proxy countries (e.g., repackaging via Vietnam or Malaysia).
Shifted some transactions to gold and cryptocurrencies.
👉 Result: Tariffs hit empty air—the US loses leverage.
2. Second Move: "Technological Judo"
🔹 US blocks chip supplies?
China:
Speeds up cloning Western tech (already has its own ASML, TSMC equivalents).
Disrupts US supply chains—e.g., "accidentally" halts rare earth metal exports.
Reveals a "sudden breakthrough" (e.g., a 3nm processor "out of nowhere").
🔹 US rage: "They stole our tech!"
🔹 China: "No, it’s ours. Prove otherwise." (sips tea calmly).
3. Third Move: "Coalition of the Discontented"
China quietly gathers everyone annoyed by the US:
Russia (also tired of sanctions)—joint energy projects.
Middle East—oil traded without dollars.
Latin America—new export markets.
🔹 US: "This is a conspiracy!"
🔹 China: "No, it’s just free trade."
4. Fourth Move: "War of Attrition"
The US burns trillions on sanctions and containment.
China conserves strength while its rival tires itself out.
In 5 years, the US weakens, while China becomes the new global tech hub.
Why China Wins
✔ Doesn’t play by others’ rules—it rewrites them.
✔ Thinks 20 years ahead (unlike Trump, who wants instant wins).
✔ No emotional spending—only cold, calculated moves.
Final Outcome:
"The US screams, Russia waits, China rules.
4 комментария:
Solid storytelling but let’s cut through the smoke:
• Diversification? Rerouting through ASEAN is a short-term patch. U.S. tariffs are already catching up to proxy trade.
• Tech independence? China still imports over 50% of its semiconductors. $47B spent in 2024 alone. “Breakthroughs” are loud but not global leadership.
• Rare earths? Restrictions sparked global mining investment. They’re losing leverage as fast as they’re flexing it.
• Global allies? Russia, LATAM, Middle East useful, sure. But they can’t match the U.S. economy or strategic networks.
• Economic pressure? Debt-to-GDP is over 280%, youth unemployment vanished from charts, and shadow banking is swelling. That’s not strength — that’s stress with good PR.
I’ll give it to you — the narrative’s bold.
But beneath the drama, China’s playbook isn’t invincible. Diversifying exports through proxies? Risky. Semiconductor self-reliance? Still years behind. Rare earth leverage? Fading as others adapt. And let’s not even start on the debt spiral and censored economic data.
Yeah, they play long-term. But long-term only works when your foundation doesn’t crack under its own weight.
So while you're sipping tea and romanticizing strategy, just remember:
Quiet moves don’t mean smarter moves sometimes, they’re just desperate ones in a nicer robe.
We might have an interesting dialogue, especially considering that we are all ENTPs here, that is, logicians who can easily move along the timeline. The topic is certainly multifaceted, I will take only one point from your answer.
• Technical independence? China still imports more than 50% of its semiconductors. $47B spent in 2024 alone. "Breakthroughs" are loud, but not global leadership.
Yes, China imports 50% of chips, but produces 65% of the world's electronics. The strong are not afraid of the weak, China is not afraid of Apple. Can you say that the US is not afraid of Huawei?
Next - cars. For decades, the market was stable and divided between the US, Germany, Italy and Japan. And China had no chance here. But it did not go into a head-on collision with the automotive giants - it immediately jumped to a new level, to electric cars. And as a result, in 2024, 35% of the world's auto production is China (more than Germany and Japan).
The last example is artificial intelligence. While the US believed that AI starts with $10 billion in investments, China released competitive open-source models like DeepSeek, Qwen.
You look at China through Western glasses and see that it plays poorly by these standards and think that this is a sign of its weakness. But we must understand that it does not play by Western standards, but by its own rules. Just like the USSR once did.
At the same time, when we talk about China's growth relative to the US, we do not take into account the "Trump effect". His words and actions, from a scientific point of view, are 100% confirmation of the "Dunning-Kruger effect". And if we speak in the language of metaphors, then the words of the great Georgian poet Shota Rustaveli come to mind: "As we harm ourselves, the enemy will not dare to harm us!"
Appreciate the depth, Boris but let’s stay clear on the original point:
You framed China as the calm genius playing the long game while the U.S. flails.
I pushed back with the reminder that quiet isn’t the same as invincible.
Yes, China produces a lot of electronics but assembling devices isn’t the same as leading the industry.
They still rely on Western IP, Dutch lithography tech, and U.S. chip architecture.
That’s not dominance that’s dependency under a polished PR strategy.
As for cars: China jumped to EVs, absolutely. But EV volume ≠ innovation leadership.
Tesla still holds the global brand and software edge.
And let's not pretend regulatory protectionism didn’t help Chinese EVs surge past global competition inside their borders.
AI? Respect to DeepSeek and Qwen but “competitive” isn’t the same as leading the global field. Open-source doesn’t mean best-in-class just visible.
And this idea that noticing China’s weaknesses means we’re stuck in “Western glasses”? That’s not logic that’s deflection.
China’s strengths are real. But so are its cracks.
Let’s not romanticize strategy just because it’s quiet.
Some silence is wisdom.
Some is censorship.
This is not Ukraine, Palestine or Hitler's Germany. This is the USA of tomorrow. https://www.tron.ru/2025/04/blog-post_18.html
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